Inflation in Brazil
Brazil's inflation from 2013 to 2022 was characterized by volatility, with rates frequently fluctuating between 5% and 10%. Economic and political instability, fluctuating commodity prices, and shifts in fiscal policies largely influenced these changes. High inflation periods were marked by currency depreciation and fiscal deficits. Towards the end of the decade, Brazil faced challenges in controlling inflation, particularly due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global commodity prices.
Consumer price inflation in Brazil averaged 6.2% in the ten years to 2022, below the Latin America regional average of 8.4%. The 2022 average figure was 9.3%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for Brazil from 2014 to 2023.
Source: IBGE.
Brazil Inflation Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 8.3 | 9.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 10.1 | 5.8 |
Inflation falls to lowest level since June 2023 in April
Inflation dropped to 3.7% in April from March’s 3.9%. April's result represented the weakest inflation rate since June 2023 but marginally overshot market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, prices for transportation grew at a more moderate pace in April. Additionally, prices for housing and utilities also increased at a milder rate. Meanwhile, prices for food and beverages rose at a steady pace compared to the previous month's reading.Meanwhile, the trend was unchanged, with annual average inflation coming in at March's 4.3% in April. Meanwhile, core inflation cooled to 3.8% in April, down from March’s 4.3%. April’s print was the lowest in three years. Finally, consumer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.38% over the previous month in April, after the 0.16% increase logged in March.
Looking ahead, the disinflation process is now likely to stall and inflation will hover around current levels for the rest of the year. Our panelists expect average inflation to remain within the Central Bank of Brazil’s 1.5%–4.5% tolerance band through the end of our forecast horizon in 2028. That said, it will remain above the mid-point of the band. The ongoing easing of monetary policy will sustain price pressures ahead.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 41 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Brazilian inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
